What Happened When I Let Futarchy Decide My Startup's Worth at Manifest
· 3 min read
An experiment in valuation at the world's biggest prediction market festival
It is time for Okay Bet to raise its first round of funding. With an empty cap table, investors need some context for valuation. An effective way to make decisions and poll public opinion is with prediction markets. This market driven policy is called Futarchy and it involves having a group bet on the what the policy outcome would be in order to decide what to do in the first place. To try this out I went to the world's largest prediction market conference, Manifest 2025, to ask the best forecasters to bet on what Okay Bet is worth.